Analysing the Relationship Between Rainfall Variability and Crop Failure in Bauchi State

Rainfall variability is the single most influential climatic determinant of agricultural output in Bauchi State's rain-fed farming systems within Nigeria's North East geopolitical zone, where the majority of smallholder farmers cultivate sorghum, millet, and cowpea under rainfed conditions with minimal access to irrigation or crop insurance. This study analyses the relationship between inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability and crop failure incidence across Bauchi State for the period 2014 to 2023. Monthly rainfall data from twelve meteorological stations maintained by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency were analysed to compute inter-annual variability coefficients, onset and cessation dates of the growing season, and the frequency of dry spell occurrences during the critical vegetative and reproductive growth stages of the primary crops. Crop failure records were obtained from the Bauchi State Agricultural Development Programme, disaggregated to local government area level and defined as yields falling below 50 percent of the five-year moving average. Correlation analysis and panel regression with fixed local government effects were applied to test the rainfall-failure relationship. Results confirm that dry spell frequency during July and August, corresponding to critical sorghum flowering stages, has the strongest predictive relationship with crop failure incidence (r = 0.72, p < 0.01). Late-onset rainfall years show a 2.8-fold increase in crop failure probability relative to normal-onset years. Recommendations centre on improved seasonal forecast services, community seed banks, and diversification into shorter-cycle crop varieties. Keywords: rainfall variability, crop failure, Bauchi State, North East Nigeria, smallholder agriculture.