Evaluating Natural Hazard Exposure and Community Resilience in Ondo State Coastal Areas

Ondo State's Atlantic coastline in Nigeria's South West geopolitical zone is exposed to multiple natural hazards including wave-driven coastal erosion, sea flooding, and storm surge events that are intensifying under climate change, generating losses in coastal communities that lack adequate resilience infrastructure and institutional support. This study evaluates natural hazard exposure and community resilience in five coastal communities of Ilaje and Ese Odo local government areas in Ondo State. Coastal hazard exposure was characterised using NDWI-derived shoreline change analysis from Sentinel-2 imagery (2015 to 2023), wave energy modelling using WAVEWATCH III hindcast data, and storm surge risk assessment using a bathtub inundation model applied to LiDAR topographic data. Community resilience was assessed using the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) framework adapted for Nigerian coastal contexts, measuring infrastructure, social, economic, community capital, and institutional resilience dimensions from household surveys and key informant data. Results indicate shoreline retreat rates of 2.8 to 5.4 metres per year across the five study communities, with the most rapid erosion recorded in Ayetoro, which is partly submerged and frequently cited in humanitarian literature on sea level rise impacts. Community resilience scores are consistently low across all five sites, with institutional resilience the weakest dimension, reflecting limited local government capacity to coordinate hazard response and recovery. Recommendations include coastal engineering protection at critical points, integrated coastal zone management plan adoption, and community resilience investment targeting institutional capacity building and economic diversification. Keywords: coastal hazards, community resilience, Ondo State, South West Nigeria, climate change.