Analytical Assessment of Carbon Stock Distribution and Land Use Change Dynamics in Anambra State

Accurate quantification of carbon stocks and their temporal change dynamics in tropical Nigerian landscapes is fundamental to designing credible mitigation interventions and accessing REDD+ financing, yet state-level carbon accounting in South East Nigeria remains underdeveloped. This study conducts an analytical assessment of carbon stock distribution and land use change dynamics in Anambra State using an integrated remote sensing and field measurement approach. Land use and land cover classification was performed on Sentinel-2 imagery for 2015, 2019, and 2023, producing change matrices for forest, woodland, cropland, built-up, and wetland categories. Above-ground biomass was estimated at 60 stratified sample plots using allometric equations calibrated for Nigerian humid forest and derived woodland strata, and below-ground and soil organic carbon pools were estimated using IPCC Tier 2 default factors. Carbon stock changes are computed following IPCC 2019 Refinement guidelines. Findings indicate a net carbon stock loss of approximately 1.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2015 and 2023, driven primarily by forest and woodland conversion to cropland and built-up uses in densely settled LGAs. Riverine forest areas in the south of the state exhibit the highest per-hectare carbon densities and therefore represent priority conservation targets. The study provides an Anambra State carbon accounting baseline suitable for REDD+ readiness documentation and state-level greenhouse gas inventory contribution. Policy recommendations address integration of carbon stock data into Anambra State's spatial planning, protection of high-value carbon sink areas, and community forest payment scheme design. Keywords: carbon stocks, land use change, REDD+, Anambra State, biomass estimation.