Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth Patterns and Their Implication for Peri-Urban Ecosystem Services in Abuja FCT

Peri-urban zones around Nigeria's federal capital are experiencing particularly rapid land use transformation as residential and commercial expansion encroaches on landscapes that provide essential ecosystem services to the broader metropolitan region. This study analyses spatiotemporal urban growth patterns in Abuja's peri-urban zone and assesses the implications of these changes for ecosystem service provisioning between 2010 and 2024. Land use and land cover maps were generated from Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery at four time points and used to compute urban growth metrics including annual expansion rates, morphological growth typology, and landscape fragmentation indices. Ecosystem service values for eight service categories including carbon storage, water regulation, soil retention, food provision, and recreation were estimated using benefit transfer from a meta-analytical valuation database adjusted for Nigerian income levels. Change in aggregate ecosystem service value was computed by overlaying service value estimates with land use change areas. Results confirm an annual urban growth rate of 5.8 percent in the peri-urban study zone, driven predominantly by residential estate development and road-corridor commercial expansion. Aggregate ecosystem service value has declined by an estimated 43 billion Naira over the study period, with water regulation and carbon storage representing the largest lost service categories. Rapid growth in areas underlain by shallow aquifer recharge zones raises particular concern for long-term metropolitan water security. Recommendations address green space retention requirements in peri-urban development approvals, ecosystem service valuation integration into Abuja master plan revision, and establishment of a peri-urban conservation buffer programme. Keywords: urban growth, ecosystem services, peri-urban, Abuja, land use change.