A Comprehensive Geospatial Framework for Oil Spill Risk Assessment, Real-Time Detection, and Ecological Impact Modelling in the Niger Delta

Despite decades of documented environmental damage and multiple internationally co-ordinated assessment exercises, the Niger Delta lacks a theoretically grounded, operationally functional geospatial framework that integrates oil spill risk prediction, real-time satellite detection, and ecological impact modelling into a unified spatial intelligence system capable of supporting prevention, emergency response, and accountability functions. This dissertation develops an original comprehensive geospatial framework for oil spill risk assessment, real-time detection, and ecological impact modelling in the Niger Delta, making theoretical and operational contributions across all three functional domains. A Spill Risk Probability Model is developed using historical spill event data, pipeline condition indices, land access security classification, and structural vulnerability indicators in a spatially explicit Bayesian network framework. Operational real-time spill detection is advanced through development of a fused Sentinel-1 SAR and Landsat-9 OLI change detection ensemble, achieving 91 percent detection accuracy for spills greater than 0.1 hectares in surface extent in a retrospective validation study. An original Ecological Impact Cascade Model integrates spill extent with mangrove habitat sensitivity, fisheries resource zones, community water intake locations, and seasonal hydrological connectivity to generate time-dynamic ecological consequence maps within hours of spill detection. The full framework is implemented in an open-source web GIS platform evaluated through a six-month operational trial with the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency. Theoretical contributions include the Spill Risk Probability Model's Bayesian network formulation and the Ecological Impact Cascade Model as original geospatial constructs for complex environmental emergency management. Keywords: oil spill, geospatial framework, Niger Delta, SAR, ecological impact.