Professional Analysis of Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage Opportunities in Nigeria’s Upstream Petroleum Sector Under the Energy Transition Policy Framework

Nigeria's energy transition commitments under the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan of 2022 and its updated Nationally Determined Contributions create a policy environment in which carbon capture, utilisation, and storage technologies are increasingly relevant to upstream petroleum operations. This study professionally analyses the CCUS opportunity landscape in Nigeria's upstream petroleum sector. The study evaluates depleted reservoir storage potential, CO2 enhanced oil recovery applicability, and CO2 enhanced gas recovery prospects in the Niger Delta and frontier basin contexts. Structural closures with estimated storage capacity are identified from published reservoir characterisation data, and a capacity estimation methodology aligned with the U.S. DOE CO2 Storage Resource Classification System is applied. CO2 EOR screening criteria are applied to candidate Niger Delta reservoirs using published minimum miscibility pressure correlations and reservoir depth-pressure-temperature conditions. Economic viability assessments are constructed for three CCUS scenarios: industrial point source capture and saline aquifer storage in the Chad Basin, CO2 EOR in mature Niger Delta fields, and offshore CO2 enhanced gas recovery in deepwater depleted reservoirs. Results indicate that CO2 EOR in mature Niger Delta onshore fields offers the most commercially viable near-term pathway at CO2 prices above 35 USD per tonne, assuming carbon credits are monetisable under the Nigerian Carbon Market scheme. Regulatory gaps identified in the DPR and NUPRC frameworks are documented. Keywords: CCUS, carbon capture, CO2 EOR, Nigerian energy transition, upstream petroleum.