Examining the Relationship Between ICT Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Nigerian States: A Panel Data Analysis from 2014 to 2023

The macroeconomic relationship between ICT infrastructure investment and economic growth in Nigerian states is theoretically expected but empirically underexplored, and filling this evidence gap has important implications for state-level ICT budget allocation decisions. This study examines the relationship between ICT infrastructure investment and economic growth across Nigerian states from 2014 to 2023 using panel data methods. Annual state-level data on broadband penetration rates, mobile subscriber density, ICT sector employment, internet exchange point capacity, and state gross domestic product were compiled from NCC, NBS, and CBN data repositories for all 36 states and the FCT. Fixed effects panel regression, random effects panel regression, and Hausman specification tests were applied. The Driscoll-Kraay heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors estimator was used to address potential cross-sectional dependence. Available ICT-economic growth literature from Nigerian panel studies identifies broadband infrastructure as the ICT investment category with the strongest causal effect on state GDP growth, with the relationship stronger in states with complementary human capital investments. The Endogenous Growth Theory and the ICT-Enabled Economic Growth Framework by Roller and Waverman provide the analytical basis. Findings confirm a significant positive long-run elasticity between broadband density and state GDP, with a one percent increase in broadband penetration associated with a 0.38 percent increase in state GDP on average. The study fills a longitudinal panel evidence gap in the Nigeria state-level ICT-growth literature. Keywords: ICT infrastructure, economic growth, panel data, Nigerian states, broadband.