A Complex Systems Approach to Understanding Theatre Ecology in Nigerian Metropolitan Areas

Theatre ecology in Nigerian metropolitan areas, comprising the interdependent networks of practitioners, venues, audiences, funders, and educational institutions, exhibits complex adaptive system properties that linear arts policy models cannot adequately address. This study developed and applied a complex systems framework to understand theatre ecology in three Nigerian metropolitan areas: Lagos (South West), Abuja (North Central), and Enugu (South East). A complex systems methodology employing social network analysis, agent-based modelling, and systems mapping was employed. Social network analysis of theatre production collaborations in each city generated network maps identifying key connectivity nodes, boundary spanners, and isolated cluster formations. Agent-based simulation tested the system's response to different policy interventions including funding increases, venue investment, and educational expansion. Systems mapping involved participatory workshops with 90 theatre ecology stakeholders (30 per city) identifying key feedback loops and leverage points. Results showed that theatre ecology in all three cities was characterised by small-world network properties with high clustering and dependence on a small number of bridging individuals. Removal of these bridging individuals in simulation produced disproportionate ecosystem disruption. The agent-based model confirmed that audience development investment generated greater system-level benefit than practitioner subsidy investment alone. The original Complex Systems Theatre Ecology Framework identifies four systemic leverage points for policy intervention. Expert review confirmed the methodology's original contribution. Recommendations include systems thinking training for arts policy-makers and annual theatre ecology network mapping in all six geopolitical zones.

Keywords: theatre ecology, complex systems, Nigerian theatre, social network analysis, arts policy