A One Health Bioeconomic Model of Livestock Disease Control Investment in Nigeria: Original Framework and Empirical Application

This dissertation develops an original One Health bioeconomic model for optimising livestock disease control investment in Nigeria, integrating disease transmission dynamics, economic impact modelling, and cost-effectiveness analysis to provide a rigorous analytical framework for evidence-based priority setting in Nigerian veterinary and public health policy. Current livestock disease control investment decisions in Nigeria are made without formal bioeconomic modelling frameworks, leading to resource allocation that does not reflect the full societal costs and benefits of disease prevention across the animal-human health interface. The dissertation employs a three-phase methodology: systematic meta-analysis of livestock disease burden data for the 12 priority diseases identified by Nigeria's Veterinary Council and Federal Ministry of Agriculture; development of an original compartmental SIR transmission dynamic model calibrated for five selected diseases across three Nigerian agroecological zones; and bioeconomic analysis using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for human zoonotic burden and animal welfare-adjusted life years (AWALYs) for livestock burden as integrated outcome metrics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate parameter uncertainty. Data sources include primary field epidemiology data from all six geopolitical zones, abattoir condemnation records, national health facility data, and expert elicitation. The dissertation proposes the Nigerian Livestock Disease Investment Optimization Model (NLDIOM) as an original policy tool. Application of the NLDIOM identifies PPR control, brucellosis test-and-slaughter, and HPAI biosecurity investment as the three highest return-on-investment priorities at current disease burden levels. Keywords: bioeconomic model, livestock disease control, One Health, investment optimisation, Nigeria.