An Original Ecological and Genomic Framework for Understanding Rabies Virus Spillover from Dogs to Wildlife and Humans in North Central Nigeria

This dissertation develops and empirically validates an original ecological and genomic framework for understanding rabies virus spillover dynamics from the domestic dog reservoir to wildlife and human populations in North Central Nigeria, encompassing Plateau, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Niger States. The North Central geopolitical zone presents a uniquely complex epidemiological landscape for rabies spillover due to the coexistence of large domestic dog populations, diverse wildlife reservoirs, and high rates of human-wildlife conflict in the Middle Belt agroecological zone, yet no systematic spillover ecology study has been conducted. The dissertation employs a three-phase mixed-methods design: longitudinal surveillance of rabies cases in domestic dogs, wildlife, and humans across 30 sites in the six states over three years using passive surveillance networks and active case-finding; whole genome sequencing and phylogeographic analysis of 180 rabies virus isolates from dogs, jackals, mongooses, and humans; and ecological network modelling of inter-host contact rates using camera traps, GPS-collared dogs, and human-wildlife conflict reporting systems. Bayesian stochastic transmission models are parameterised using the ecological and genomic data to estimate between-host transmission rates. The dissertation proposes the North Central Rabies Spillover Ecology Model (NCRSOM) as an original theoretical contribution, demonstrating that domestic dog-jackal contact in periurban interface zones constitutes the dominant spillover pathway, responsible for 67 percent of estimated wildlife rabies cases. Original contributions include the NCRSOM framework, the cross-species rabies genomic phylogeographic dataset, and a spillover-informed canine vaccination targeting algorithm. Keywords: rabies spillover, wildlife, ecological framework, genomics, North Central Nigeria.