📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
Inland waterway ferry accidents in Nigeria, characterised by recurrent loss of life from capsizing and collision, represent a persistent maritime safety crisis that has not been adequately explained by existing accident causation theories developed in external contexts. This study applies a socio-technical systems analysis approach to develop a contextualised accident causation theory applicable to Nigerian inland waterway ferry operations. The research employs a constructivist grounded theory methodology, drawing on detailed re-analysis of fifty-four inland waterway ferry accident investigation records from the Nigerian Inland Waterways Authority spanning 2010 to 2023, supplemented by eighty-three in-depth interviews with ferry operators, survivors, accident investigators, and waterway regulators. Systems theoretic accident modelling methods are used to map the multi-level control structure failures present in accident scenarios. The emergent contextualised theory proposes that Nigerian inland waterway ferry accidents are best understood as the product of four interacting systemic conditions: regulatory governance deficit, normalised risk acceptance within operator communities, environmental infrastructure absence, and economic constraint-induced safety compromise. The theory advances existing accident causation literature by explicitly theorising the role of structural poverty and governance failure as upstream systemic accident causes rather than contextual background factors. The study provides a theoretically grounded basis for policy intervention design that addresses root causes rather than proximate causal factors. Keywords: accident causation theory, inland waterway ferry, socio-technical systems, human error, grounded theory
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