A Theoretical Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in Nigerian Cereal Crop Production Systems

Nigerian cereal crop production systems face complex and interacting climate change challenges including rainfall variability, increasing temperature, elevated CO2, and changing pest and disease pressure, and developing an original theoretical framework that integrates these multiple drivers and their interactions for Nigerian cereal systems constitutes a significant contribution to crop science and climate adaptation theory. This study developed an original theoretical framework for climate change adaptation in Nigerian cereal crop production systems, focusing on maize, sorghum, and millet systems across the major agroecological zones. A theory-building methodology combining systematic review, crop model ensemble analysis, and expert Delphi consultation was employed. Systematic review of 87 climate change-agriculture publications with Nigerian focus (2019 to 2024) confirmed that existing adaptation frameworks inadequately integrate the interactions between CO2 fertilisation, temperature-driven phenological shifts, and rainfall variability, and do not adequately distinguish adaptation effectiveness by crop and zone. Crop model ensemble analysis using DSSAT models (CERES-Maize, CERES-Sorghum, and CERES-Millet) with five CMIP6 climate scenario inputs across 12 representative Nigerian sites generated original projections for three SSP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) through 2050. The original Nigerian Cereal Climate Adaptation Framework (NCCAF) proposes a zone-differentiated adaptation pathway architecture distinguishing among incremental (variety and management changes), transitional (farming system restructuring), and transformational (land use change) adaptation options for each zone and crop combination. Expert review by 22 crop scientists and climate adaptation specialists confirmed the framework's original theoretical contribution.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, Nigerian cereals, crop model ensemble, theoretical framework, original contribution