An Ecological Systems Analysis of School Dropout Risk Factors Among Female Adolescents in the North West Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria

Female school dropout in North West Nigeria is a multidimensional phenomenon rooted in intersecting ecological systems, yet existing dropout research has largely employed individual-level or single-context analyses. This study conducted an ecological systems analysis of school dropout risk factors among female adolescents in the North West geopolitical zone of Nigeria, applying Bronfenbrenner's bioecological model as the theoretical organising framework. A sequential exploratory mixed-methods design was used across three states (Kano, Kaduna, Kebbi), involving 500 dropout girls (15 to 22 years old) and 120 current female students identified as high-risk, supplemented by 60 community leaders, parents, and school stakeholders. Quantitative data were analysed using logistic regression and path analysis, while qualitative data were analysed using ecological thematic mapping. Findings identified microsystem risks including early marriage pressure, distance to school, and abusive school environments as the most proximal dropout predictors. Mesosystem risks included poor parent-school communication and teacher gender bias. Exosystem risks included inadequate state-level girl-child education policy enforcement. Macrosystem risks included patriarchal cultural norms legitimising female educational subordination. Interaction effects across ecological levels demonstrated compounding dropout risk. The study offers an original ecological risk architecture for female dropout in North West Nigeria and recommends zone-specific multi-stakeholder counselling and retention policy design informed by the ecological model. Keywords: school dropout, female adolescents, ecological systems theory, North West Nigeria, counselling policy.