An Empirical Study of the Effects of Post-Conflict Reconstruction on Urban Property Markets in Borno State

This study empirically examines the effects of post-conflict reconstruction activities on urban property markets in Borno State, North East Nigeria, analysing how reconstruction investment, return migration, and institutional rebuilding have influenced property values, rental markets, and investment activity in Maiduguri and selected reconstruction communities. Borno State has been at the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency, and the post-conflict reconstruction process creates distinctive real estate market dynamics that are relevant to property market analysis, investment planning, and humanitarian-to-development transition management. A mixed-methods design combines quantitative property market data analysis with qualitative interviews and case studies. Residential property transaction records and rental market data from estate surveyor firms in Maiduguri from 2016 to 2023 are analysed using a difference-in-differences framework comparing price and volume trends in more and less conflict-affected neighbourhoods across the study period. Structured interviews are conducted with 50 property owners, 20 estate surveyors, and 15 reconstruction programme managers. Results show a bifurcated property market recovery pattern, with GRA and established commercial areas recovering rental values to near pre-conflict levels by 2021, while properties in conflict-epicentre communities remain significantly discounted. Reconstruction programme investment in infrastructure and public buildings generates positive spillover effects on surrounding residential values. Return migration creates rental demand pressure that has driven rapid rental increases in functional neighbourhoods. The study highlights the estate management sector's role in conflict recovery economic development. Recommendations include integrating property market monitoring into humanitarian-to-development transition frameworks. Keywords: post-conflict reconstruction, property market, Borno State, Maiduguri, real estate recovery.