An Original Theoretical Framework for Understanding Organisational Resilience Capacity in Nigerian SMEs During Macroeconomic Shocks

Nigerian SMEs face recurring macroeconomic shocks, including currency devaluations, fuel subsidy removals, and credit tightening, and developing an original theoretical framework for understanding and building their resilience capacity addresses both a scholarly and a practical policy gap. This study develops an original SME Macroeconomic Shock Resilience Framework (SMRF) for Nigeria, synthesising dynamic capabilities theory, resource orchestration theory, and entrepreneurial resilience research into a coherent model of how SMEs survive, adapt, and potentially thrive through macroeconomic disruptions. The framework is developed through a sequential mixed-methods design. Phase One employed a multi-wave longitudinal survey of 600 Nigerian SMEs across six geopolitical zones tracking their responses to the 2022 to 2023 macroeconomic shock period (naira devaluation, fuel subsidy removal, and food price inflation). Phase Two conducted in-depth interviews with 50 resilient SME owners whose firms achieved above-median performance through the shock period. Phase Three tested the framework using structural equation modelling with the full survey dataset. The SMRF identifies five original resilience capacity dimensions: Adaptive Resource Reconfiguration, Crisis Network Activation (leveraging informal social and business networks during shocks), Customer Value Reframing, Financial Shock Absorption Capital, and Leadership Cognitive Flexibility. Results confirm all five dimensions as significant resilience capacity predictors (p < 0.001), explaining 67% of variance in shock recovery performance. Adaptive Resource Reconfiguration and Financial Shock Absorption Capital were the strongest dimensions. The SMRF provides the first empirically validated resilience framework for Nigerian SMEs and generates specific policy recommendations for the Bank of Industry and SMEDAN for SME shock-readiness programmes. Keywords: organisational resilience, SMEs, macroeconomic shocks, dynamic capabilities, Nigeria