An Original Theoretical Model of Cybersecurity Norm Diffusion in West Africa Through Nigerian Leadership

Nigeria's size, digital economy leadership, and regional political influence position it as a potential driver of cybersecurity norm diffusion across West Africa, yet the theoretical mechanisms through which this diffusion can occur have not been modelled. This study developed an original theoretical model of cybersecurity norm diffusion in West Africa through Nigerian leadership, drawing on norm diffusion theory, constructivist international relations, and African digital governance analysis. A theory-building methodology employing systematic review, comparative case analysis, and expert consultation was used. Systematic review of norm diffusion theory (48 publications from 2018 to 2024) and regional cybersecurity governance (33 publications) confirmed that norm cascade theory requires adaptation for regional dynamics where the leading state has limited coercive power and norm legitimacy derives from peer relationships rather than hegemonic authority. Comparative case analysis of four Nigerian cybersecurity norm export attempts (ECOWAS Supplementary Act on E-Transactions support, bilateral MLAT cybercrime treaties, capacity building exports, and AFRIPOL cybercrime reporting contribution) identified enabling and constraining mechanisms. Expert interviews with 25 policymakers and cybersecurity officials from Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, and Togo provided empirical grounding. The original Nigerian Cybersecurity Norm Diffusion Model proposes three diffusion mechanisms: regulatory convergence through harmonisation leadership, capacity demonstration through Nigerian technical assistance programmes, and narrative framing through African Union engagement. Original theoretical contributions include the Reputational Ambivalence Hypothesis, theorising how Nigeria's cybercrime source reputation simultaneously constrains and motivates leadership in cybercrime norm diffusion. Expert review confirmed original theoretical contribution.

Keywords: cybersecurity norm diffusion, West Africa, Nigeria, regional governance, international cybersecurity norms