Analysing the Role of Intra-African Trade in Nigeria’s Post-Oil Economic Transition Strategy

This study analyses the potential role of intra-African trade expansion in supporting Nigeria's long-term transition away from petroleum export dependence, providing empirical assessment of the sectors and trade corridors offering the greatest diversification potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework. Nigeria's economic diversification agenda recognises the importance of non-oil export development, yet the literature has insufficiently examined intra-African trade as a distinct strategy rather than a component of generalised trade promotion. The study employs a gravity model econometric framework applied to bilateral trade data between Nigeria and 53 African trading partners sourced from UNCTAD COMTRADE for the period 2015 to 2022. The model estimates the trade potential between Nigeria and key African partner countries across manufactured goods, processed agricultural products, and services, identifying trade gaps between actual and predicted trade flows. Qualitative analysis of sector-specific trade constraints complements the econometric findings. The theoretical framework draws on the gravity model of international trade, the new regionalism theory, and structural transformation literature. The study distinguishes between the short-term and long-term trade potential horizons, recognising that infrastructure development and institutional convergence are prerequisites for realising modelled potential. Findings are expected to identify West African and East African corridors as priority targets for Nigerian trade diversification, with manufactured consumer goods and pharmaceutical exports as key opportunity sectors. Recommendations include targeted trade corridor investment, sector-specific export promotion, and diplomatic engagement for mutual tariff reduction in identified sectors. Keywords: intra-African trade, AfCFTA, economic diversification, Nigeria, gravity model