Analysis of Birth Rate Trends in Cross River State Using National Population Commission Data

Population dynamics in Cross River State, South South Nigeria, are shaped by changing fertility patterns influenced by urban migration, educational attainment, and evolving contraceptive uptake, yet trend-level quantitative analysis of birth rate changes at the state level is rarely published. This study analyses birth rate trends in Cross River State from 2010 to 2022 using data obtained from the National Population Commission and the Cross River State Ministry of Health. Crude birth rates and total fertility rates were computed for three sub-periods. Trend analysis used ordinary least squares linear regression on time, with residual autocorrelation checked by the Durbin-Watson statistic. The Chow test was applied to assess structural breaks. The crude birth rate declined from 42.3 per 1,000 in 2010 to 36.1 per 1,000 in 2022, representing a 14.7 percent reduction. The total fertility rate declined from 5.8 to 4.9 children per woman. Linear regression confirmed a statistically significant downward trend (beta = -0.52, p = 0.002). A structural break was detected in 2016, coinciding with scaled-up family planning programme implementation. Urban LGAs showed significantly steeper fertility declines than rural LGAs. The study provides a quantitative fertility transition profile for Cross River State that supports evidence-based population planning and recommends longitudinal disaggregation of birth rate data by educational attainment and urban-rural residence in future NPC reporting. Keywords: birth rate trends, fertility rate, Cross River State, regression analysis, population statistics