Analysis of Demographic Distribution and Population Density Patterns in Ibadan North Local Government Area

Accurate analysis of population distribution patterns is essential for infrastructure planning, social service allocation, and electoral delimitation in Nigerian metropolitan areas. This study analyses demographic distribution and population density patterns in Ibadan North Local Government Area of Oyo State using GIS and census-derived data. Ward-level population data from the 2006 National Population Census, adjusted using growth projection models endorsed by the National Population Commission, are geocoded and linked to ward boundary shapefiles to produce choropleth population density maps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Local Indicators of Spatial Association identifies statistically significant clusters of high and low population density. Land use maps derived from Sentinel-2 classification are overlaid to examine the relationship between population density and land use patterns. Results reveal an inverse relationship between distance from the city centre and population density, with the densest wards concentrated in the Agodi, Oke-Ado, and Agbowo neighbourhoods. Secondary clustering of high density is detected in market-adjacent wards reflecting commercial activity attractors. The study identifies structural infrastructure deficits, particularly in water, sanitation, and road quality, that correlate with high-density informal settlements. Outputs are shared with the Ibadan North LGA administration and the Oyo State Ministry of Physical Planning and Urban Development to support evidence-based planning. Keywords: population density, GIS analysis, demographic mapping, Ibadan, spatial autocorrelation.