Armed Group Fragmentation and Implications for Conflict Management in Borno State

This study generates an original theoretical and empirical analysis of armed group fragmentation dynamics and their implications for conflict management strategies in Borno State, North East Nigeria. The fragmentation of Boko Haram into multiple factions, including Jamaat Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Dawah wal-Jihad, the Islamic State West Africa Province, and various splinter formations, has fundamentally transformed the conflict management challenge in the Lake Chad Basin, yet existing conflict management literature has inadequately theorised the implications of this fragmentation for peace processes. Employing a structured focused comparison methodology, the study analyses four fragmentation episodes between 2016 and 2024 using 50 elite interviews with security analysts, de-radicalisation practitioners, local government officials, and humanitarian actors in Maiduguri and surrounding regions, supplemented by comprehensive conflict incident data analysis. The theoretical contribution is a Lake Chad Basin Armed Group Fragmentation Model that identifies ideological differentiation, military battlefield pressure, and leadership succession disputes as the three primary drivers of armed group fragmentation, and maps their distinct implications for negotiation access, de-radicalisation programme design, and community reintegration strategies. Findings demonstrate that fragmentation significantly complicates conflict management by proliferating spoiler actors, creating competitive outbidding in violence, and disrupting community acceptance of returning ex-combatants. Recommendations include developing fragment-specific engagement strategies, investing in comprehensive armed group mapping as an ongoing intelligence product for conflict management, and adapting the Safe Corridor programme to address the ideological diversity of fragmenting armed group members. Keywords: armed group fragmentation, Boko Haram, Borno State, conflict management, North East Nigeria.