Conflict, Displacement, and State Fragility: A Longitudinal Analysis of Northeast Nigeria

This study develops a longitudinal theoretical and empirical analysis of the interdependence between armed conflict, mass displacement, and state fragility in Northeast Nigeria, examining Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states across the period 2009 to 2024. While the relationship between conflict and state fragility is well-established in the literature, the specific feedback loops between displacement-induced governance collapse, conflict expansion, and fragility deepening in the Nigerian Northeast have not been systematically modelled, representing a theoretical gap with significant policy implications. Employing a mixed-methods longitudinal research design, the study combines quantitative analysis of ACLED conflict event data, UNHCR displacement figures, and World Bank state fragility indicators from 2009 to 2024 with qualitative data from 65 interviews with humanitarian officials, state government actors, security analysts, and community representatives conducted across three fieldwork rounds in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Dynamic panel regression models were used to test bidirectional conflict-fragility relationships. The theoretical contribution is an original Northeast Nigeria Conflict-Displacement-Fragility Cycle Model, which identifies the specific institutional and administrative mechanisms through which displacement amplifies state fragility and how fragility in turn perpetuates conflict and displacement. Findings confirm strong bidirectional relationships between all three variables, with displacement-induced administrative capacity collapse serving as the primary mechanism in the conflict-to-fragility direction. Recommendations include developing integrated conflict-fragility management strategies for the Northeast, prioritising administrative capacity reconstruction alongside security sector reform, and establishing longitudinal monitoring frameworks that track all three interdependent variables simultaneously. Keywords: conflict, displacement, state fragility, Northeast Nigeria, longitudinal analysis.