Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Groundnut Farming in Katsina State

Groundnut production in Katsina State has historically anchored the agricultural economy of Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone, yet increasing climate variability threatens yields and farmer livelihoods across the region. This study assesses the relationship between climatic parameters and groundnut productivity in Katsina State, covering three agricultural zones over the period 2013 to 2023. Meteorological data including rainfall totals, temperature anomalies, and the onset and cessation of the growing season were sourced from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency and cross-referenced with crop yield records from the Katsina State Agricultural Development Programme. Statistical analysis using correlation and regression techniques was employed to quantify the association between climatic variability and yield outcomes. Field surveys in 18 farming communities elicited farmer perceptions of changing rainfall patterns, the occurrence of drought stress at critical phenological stages, and adaptive strategies adopted in response. Results demonstrate that delayed monsoon onset, increased intra-seasonal dry spells, and elevated maximum temperatures during pod-fill stages are the primary climatic stressors reducing groundnut yields. A regression model explains 63 percent of the inter-annual yield variance using rainfall amount and onset date as predictors. Community-level findings confirm widespread crop substitution towards drought-tolerant varieties and livelihood diversification into non-farm income activities. The study recommends climate-smart extension services and improved seasonal forecast dissemination to farming communities. Keywords: climate variability, groundnut, Katsina State, agricultural productivity, North West Nigeria.