Assessment of Cost Overrun Risks in Federal Road Projects in North East Nigeria

Federal road projects in North East Nigeria operate in a complex environment characterised by security risks, extreme weather conditions, logistical challenges, and fragile supply chains that significantly elevate cost overrun risk. This study assesses the specific cost overrun risk factors in federal road projects in the North East geopolitical zone, focusing on projects in Borno, Adamawa, and Gombe States. A quantitative survey design was adopted, with 82 respondents including quantity surveyors, Federal Roads Maintenance Agency engineers, and road contractors. Structured questionnaires and project cost records from 25 federal road projects provided the data. Analysis was conducted using the risk probability and impact matrix and regression analysis. Findings identify security-related project interruptions, diesel cost volatility, community conflicts over right-of-way, and poor site access as risks unique to the North East that are not adequately captured in standard road project cost estimates. Security incidents alone have added an average of 12.3% to selected project costs through demobilisation, security provisions, and restoring damaged works. Standard contingency provisions are found to be grossly inadequate for the regional risk environment. Recommendations include development of a North East road project risk pricing guide, mandatory security cost provisioning in bills of quantities, and stakeholder consultation processes to reduce community conflict risks. Keywords: cost overrun, federal road projects, North East Nigeria, risk management, quantity surveying