Assessment of the Role of Gas Sector in Supporting Nigeria’s Energy Transition Targets

Nigeria's energy transition plan (ETP) positions natural gas as a critical transition fuel, bridging the gap between the country's current dependence on liquid fuels and biomass and a long-term clean energy future. This study assesses the role of the gas sector in supporting Nigeria's energy transition targets, examining its contribution to power generation, industrial decarbonisation, and the displacement of kerosene and biomass in the residential sector. The research employs a policy and sector analysis methodology, reviewing the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan published in 2022, supplementary technical reports, and stakeholder perspectives gathered through expert interviews with gas sector professionals and energy policy analysts. The study analyses projected gas demand trajectories under the ETP's baseline, accelerated transition, and delayed transition scenarios, and evaluates the infrastructure investment requirements to realise each pathway. Key findings highlight tensions between the ETP's long-term phase-down commitments and the short to medium-term imperative to expand gas supply for power generation, industrial use, and household cooking fuel displacement. The study further examines how Nigeria's gas sector aligns with the globally debated role of gas as a transition fuel, drawing on comparative analysis with Ghana and Mozambique's gas sector development experiences. Recommendations include a dedicated domestic gas utilisation masterplan, fast-tracked methane leak reduction programmes to strengthen the sector's sustainability credentials, and transparent annual reporting of gas sector emissions intensity. Keywords: energy transition, natural gas, Nigeria ETP, transition fuel, gas sector policy.