Causal Inference in Project Management Research: Developing a Methodological Framework for Quasi-Experimental Design in Nigerian Construction Studies

Causal inference remains a fundamental challenge in project management research, and the development of quasi-experimental methodological frameworks specifically for Nigerian construction contexts represents a significant research gap. This study develops a causal inference methodological framework for quasi-experimental project management research in the Nigerian construction industry. A three-phase methodological study will first systematically review causal inference methods applied in construction PM research globally, assessing their applicability to Nigerian data environments. Phase two will test three quasi-experimental designs (difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables) using existing construction project datasets from the Abuja and Lagos project registries. Phase three will develop and validate a methodological guide for causal inference in Nigerian construction PM research through expert peer review and application workshops with academics and practitioners. This study constitutes an original methodological contribution to project management research methodology in Nigeria, providing a practical causal inference guide that will strengthen evidence quality for policy-relevant construction project management research. Keywords: causal inference, quasi-experimental design, project management research, Nigeria, construction methodology