Causal Modelling of the Pathways from Food Systems to Household Nutrition Security in Rural North West Nigeria

This study develops and empirically tests a causal model mapping the pathways from local food system characteristics to household nutrition security outcomes in rural communities across Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kebbi states in North West Nigeria. Food system transformation is increasingly recognised as the most strategic intervention point for addressing undernutrition at scale, yet empirical causal models contextualised within the specific agro-ecological and cultural conditions of North West Nigeria remain absent from the literature. Employing a longitudinal panel design with two waves of data collection separated by twelve months, the study targets 500 rural households in twelve communities across three states. Data were collected using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, the Food Environment Assessment Tool, dietary diversity scores, and anthropometric measurements. Analytical methods include directed acyclic graph analysis, instrumental variable regression, and dynamic panel modelling. The Food Systems Framework of the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition provides the primary theoretical scaffold. Original contributions include the first longitudinal causal model of food systems-nutrition pathways in North West Nigeria, validated community food environment indicators, and a dynamic household nutrition security index adapted for Sahelian agroecosystems. Recommendations address the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Gates Foundation Nigeria, and state ministries of nutrition and agriculture. Keywords: food systems, nutrition security, causal modelling, rural households, North West Nigeria.