Climate Change Impacts on the Phenological Synchrony Between Insect Pollinators and Sorghum Flowering in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone of North West Nigeria: A Long-Term Analysis

Climate change is disrupting the phenological synchrony between flowering plants and their insect pollinators globally, with projected consequences for crop yield stability that remain poorly quantified in tropical Africa. Sorghum, a partially cross-pollinated cereal, depends on wind and insect activity during anthesis, and in Nigeria's Sudano-Sahelian zone, shifts in the timing of the growing season raise concerns about pollination service reliability. This study investigates phenological synchrony between insect pollinator communities and sorghum anthesis in North West Nigeria under changing climate conditions, using a combination of long-term historical datasets and contemporary field monitoring. Herbarium specimen records, agricultural survey reports, and published phenology data from Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, and Zamfara states from 1985 to 2025 will be digitized and analyzed for temporal trends in sorghum anthesis dates. Concurrent pollinator community monitoring will be established at 12 sorghum farms across these states over three growing seasons using standardized sampling protocols. Structural equation modeling will test whether observed climate variables predict phenological mismatch indicators. Future scenario projections will model pollination service disruption risk under CMIP6 climate trajectories. This study makes an original contribution to understanding climate change-ecology interactions in a region and crop system with little prior longitudinal data. Keywords: phenological synchrony, climate change, insect pollinators, sorghum, Sudano-Sahelian Nigeria