Development of a Framework for Predicting Insecticide Resistance Spread in Aedes aegypti Populations Across Urban Networks in Nigeria Using Network Epidemiology

The spread of insecticide resistance between mosquito populations in urban networks is driven by migration along human transport corridors, yet models for predicting how resistance spreads through city networks have not been developed for Nigeria, where urbanization is among the world's fastest. Understanding resistance spread dynamics is critical for designing spatially targeted resistance management programs for Ae. aegypti, the dengue and yellow fever vector. This study develops and validates a network epidemiology framework for predicting the spread of pyrethroid resistance through Ae. aegypti populations across Nigeria's urban transport network. Ae. aegypti will be collected from 25 cities representing major urban and transport hubs across all geopolitical zones. Pyrethroid resistance phenotyping and genotyping (kdr allele frequencies) will be conducted for all populations. A human mobility-weighted network model will be constructed using inter-city bus and road transport data as proxies for mosquito passive dispersal. The network model will be parameterized with resistance allele frequencies and fit using approximate Bayesian computation. Forward projections will forecast resistance allele spread over 10 and 20 years under current and intensified insecticide use scenarios. The framework will be validated retrospectively against resistance surveillance datasets from other regions. This study makes an original theoretical contribution to resistance management science by demonstrating the applicability of network epidemiology theory to insecticide resistance forecasting in a rapidly urbanizing tropical country. Keywords: Aedes aegypti, insecticide resistance spread, network epidemiology, urban mosquitoes, Nigeria