Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, and Public Health Outcomes in Rural Northern Nigeria: A Multi-State Longitudinal Study

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a fundamental threat to public health in sub-Saharan Africa, yet longitudinal empirical evidence linking climatic vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and health outcomes in Nigeria's rural north remains conspicuously absent from the literature. This study examines the relationships between climate change vulnerability, community adaptive capacity, and public health outcomes across rural communities in Kano, Zamfara, Borno, Yobe, Niger, and Kogi States over a four-year longitudinal study period. A cohort of 2,400 households (400 per state) is enrolled at baseline and followed annually, with household-level vulnerability profiles assessed using the Household Vulnerability Index across livelihood, food security, water access, and health access dimensions. Climate data including temperature anomaly, rainfall variability, and flood incidence are extracted from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and satellite-derived climate databases. Community adaptive capacity is assessed through structured observations and surveys of agricultural adaptation, water storage, livelihood diversification, and health-seeking flexibility. Health outcomes including diarrhoeal disease frequency, malaria incidence, malnutrition prevalence, and mental health scores are tracked annually. Mixed-effects panel regression and structural equation modelling in Stata examine longitudinal associations. The IPCC Vulnerability and Adaptation Framework and the Planetary Health Theory provide the theoretical basis. The original contribution is a validated longitudinal model of climate-health pathways in rural northern Nigeria, providing a resource for Nigeria's National Adaptation Plan of Action. Keywords: climate change, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, public health, Northern Nigeria.