Examining the Effect of Large-Scale Conditional Cash Transfers on Child Health and Nutrition Outcomes in North West Nigeria: A Quasi-Experimental Study

Conditional cash transfer programmes represent a promising social protection strategy for improving child health and nutrition outcomes in high-poverty settings, yet rigorous quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of Nigeria's National Social Investment Programme's Conditional Cash Transfer component on child health and nutrition in North West states is absent. This study examines the effect of conditional cash transfer exposure on child health and nutrition outcomes in Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara States using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design with propensity score matching. Administrative programme enrolment data from the National Social Safety Nets Coordinating Office are linked to household survey data collected at two time points (baseline 2019 and endline 2023) from 3,600 households (1,800 enrolled and 1,800 matched control households). Child health outcomes include stunting, wasting, underweight, immunisation completeness, care-seeking for childhood illness, and exclusive breastfeeding rates at six months. Propensity score matching using Mahalanobis distance is implemented in Stata to balance covariate distributions between enrolled and control households. Difference-in-differences regression models with household fixed effects estimate the causal effect of programme exposure, with heterogeneity analysis by gender, asset wealth tertile, and programme compliance level. The Social Protection and Child Health Framework and Sen's Capability Approach provide the welfare theory basis. The original contribution is a robust quasi-experimental causal estimate of cash transfer effects on child nutrition in a high-malnutrition, high-poverty context. Findings will directly inform the National Social Safety Nets programme on nutrition-sensitive conditionality redesign. Keywords: conditional cash transfers, child nutrition, North West Nigeria, quasi-experimental, social protection.