Climate Governance, Institutional Capacity, and Adaptive Development at the Local Government Level in Semi-Arid Nigeria: A Theoretical and Empirical Contribution

This dissertation makes a theoretical and empirical contribution to understanding the conditions under which local government institutions can effectively govern climate adaptation in semi-arid northern Nigeria. Nigeria's semi-arid belt, encompassing states in the North West and North East geopolitical zones, faces existential climate threats including advancing desertification, decreasing agricultural water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Local governments occupy a critical governance position as the closest institutional actor to climate-vulnerable communities, yet the analytical frameworks for understanding local government climate governance capacity remain underdeveloped in the African development literature. Employing a grounded theory approach supplemented by an original Adaptive Governance Capacity Index developed for this research, the study conducts fieldwork across twelve local government areas in Yobe, Kebbi, and Sokoto States, gathering data from 280 respondents including local officials, farmers, pastoralists, water resource managers, and climate scientists. Secondary data includes NIMET long-term climate trend data, Niger Basin Authority reports, and international comparative literature on semi-arid climate governance. The theoretical contribution introduces the Local Climate Governance Capacity Model, identifying four institutional conditions enabling effective local adaptive governance: fiscal sufficiency, technical competence, community embeddedness, and inter-institutional linkage capacity. Findings are expected to demonstrate that Nigerian local governments currently meet none of these conditions systematically, requiring fundamental institutional re-architecture rather than incremental capacity building. Recommendations include a new legislative framework for local government climate governance roles and a dedicated Climate Adaptive Local Government Fund. Keywords: Climate governance, institutional capacity, adaptive development, semi-arid Nigeria, local government.