Coastal Tourism Carrying Capacity Assessment for Elegushi Beach, Lagos

Coastal tourism is an expanding economic sector in Lagos State, with beach recreational facilities such as Elegushi Beach attracting growing visitor numbers that may exceed the ecological and social carrying capacity of the coastal environment. This study determines the ecological, physical, and social carrying capacities of Elegushi Beach, Lagos State, South West Nigeria, using the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum and Tourism Carrying Capacity methodology adapted for the Nigerian coastal context. Physical carrying capacity is computed based on beach surface area, safe bathing zone width, and minimum space standards per visitor. Ecological carrying capacity assessment examines recreational disturbance impacts on nearshore water quality (faecal coliform, turbidity, chemical oxygen demand), intertidal biodiversity, and dune vegetation through quarterly surveys during high-season and low-season periods in 2024. Social carrying capacity is evaluated through visitor satisfaction surveys (n=200) measuring perceptions of crowding, safety, water quality, and facility standards at varying visitor densities. Waste generation rates are quantified through litter survey protocols during peak and off-peak weekends. The study integrates all capacity dimensions into composite carrying capacity thresholds expressed as maximum daily visitor numbers. Findings are expected to indicate that the beach frequently exceeds ecological carrying capacity thresholds during public holidays, with faecal coliform concentrations in the surf zone exceeding WHO bathing water standards. Recommendations include visitor cap management, improved sanitation infrastructure, and a beach management plan for the Lagos State Tourism Board. Keywords: carrying capacity, coastal tourism, Elegushi Beach, Lagos, recreational ecology