Complex Systems Modelling of Energy Transition Pathways for Nigeria: Agent-Based Approaches

Nigeria's energy transition involves interactions among millions of households, thousands of enterprises, multiple government agencies, and international investment flows operating under conditions of institutional uncertainty, technological change, and political economy dynamics that resist representation in conventional optimisation or econometric models, pointing to agent-based modelling as a more theoretically adequate approach. This study develops an original agent-based model of Nigeria's energy transition pathways, representing the emergent system-level outcomes arising from the heterogeneous adaptive behaviours of households, enterprises, energy companies, government actors, and technology suppliers. Agent decision rules are parameterised using empirical data from nationally representative household surveys, enterprise energy surveys, company performance data, and expert elicitation. The model structure incorporates energy poverty dynamics, technology diffusion processes, regulatory feedback loops, and macroeconomic coupling. Simulation experiments examine the sensitivity of energy transition speed and distributional equity outcomes to policy levers including subsidy instruments, regulatory standards, carbon pricing, and infrastructure investment priorities. Results demonstrate that transition pathway trajectories are characterised by path dependence, tipping points, and lock-in risks that are invisible to equilibrium modelling approaches. Specifically, the model identifies a critical mass threshold of solar mini-grid deployment, estimated at 15 percent rural electrification coverage, beyond which market-driven expansion accelerates autonomously. The study establishes agent-based modelling as a theoretical and methodological contribution to Nigerian energy transition planning discourse. Keywords: agent-based modelling, energy transition, Nigeria, complex systems, pathway simulation.