Complexity Theory and Adult Education System Change in Nigeria: A Multi-Stakeholder Inquiry

This study applied complexity theory as an analytical framework for understanding adult education system change dynamics in Nigeria, examining how emergence, non-linearity, self-organisation, and adaptive feedback loops shape system transformation processes. Educational system change literature has increasingly drawn on complexity theory to move beyond linear cause-effect planning models, yet its application to adult education system analysis in African national contexts remains undeveloped. The study employed a complexity-informed qualitative systems research design involving 62 interviews with stakeholders across the adult education system including federal and state officials, programme facilitators, community leaders, development partners, and adult learners, supplemented by systems mapping workshops in six purposively selected states. Causal loop diagram construction and cross-stakeholder systems pattern analysis guided interpretation. Findings revealed that Nigeria's adult education system exhibits characteristic complex adaptive system behaviours including emergent programme innovations arising from frontline facilitator adaptation, unexpected system-wide dampening effects from centralised funding models, self-reinforcing feedback loops between community apathy and poor programme quality, and catalytic leverage points at facilitator training and community mobilisation nodes. The study demonstrates that conventional linear programme planning approaches systematically misread system dynamics and generate counterproductive interventions. An original Nigerian Adult Education System Complexity Map is developed, identifying high-leverage intervention points and providing a framework for complexity-informed system redesign. Policy recommendations include adopting adaptive programme management approaches, investing in catalytic system leverage points, and building system monitoring capabilities capable of detecting emergent feedback dynamics. Keywords: complexity theory, adult education system, system change, adaptive management, Nigeria.