Decarbonisation Pathways for Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector: Energy Transition Theory and Practice

Nigeria's oil and gas sector is both the engine of national development finance and the dominant source of the country's greenhouse gas emissions, presenting a fundamental tension in its energy transition strategy that requires original theoretical and empirical investigation into sector-specific decarbonisation pathways consistent with the country's development obligations. This study analyses decarbonisation pathways for Nigeria's oil and gas sector, developing an original analytical framework that integrates energy transition theory, political economy analysis, and sector-specific carbon accounting to evaluate technically feasible, economically viable, and politically achievable decarbonisation trajectories. A comprehensive emissions inventory for the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector was constructed using plant-level activity data, engineering emission factors, and satellite methane detection data for the period 2018 to 2023. Decarbonisation options including gas flare elimination, methane leak detection and repair, carbon capture and storage, electrification of upstream operations from renewable energy, and managed production decline scenarios are evaluated against a unified comparative framework. Political economy analysis examines vested interests, institutional constraints, and international oil company incentive structures as determinants of decarbonisation pathway feasibility. Results demonstrate that flare elimination and methane leak reduction represent the highest near-term emission reduction opportunity at lowest abatement cost, with a combined abatement potential of 68 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually. The study makes an original contribution to energy transition theory by articulating a Resource Curse Decarbonisation Paradox applicable to petro-states. Keywords: decarbonisation pathways, oil and gas sector, Nigeria, energy transition theory, methane emissions.