Demand Forecasting Accuracy and Stock-Out Prevention in Supermarkets in Abuja: A Descriptive Study

This study examines the relationship between demand forecasting accuracy and stock-out prevention in supermarkets operating in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Supermarkets in Abuja serve a diverse, price-sensitive consumer base with high expectations for product availability. Frequent stock-outs erode customer loyalty and result in lost revenue, while overstocking ties up working capital and increases waste. Using a descriptive survey design, structured questionnaires and interview protocols were administered to 85 category managers, procurement officers, and store operations supervisors across 10 registered supermarkets in the Wuse, Garki, and Maitama districts of Abuja. The study measures forecasting practices using variables such as historical sales analysis, promotional demand adjustments, seasonality modelling, and use of inventory management software. Stock-out prevention performance is assessed through stock-out frequency per category per month, fill rate per supplier, and customer complaint records related to unavailable items. Pearson correlation and regression analysis are used to test hypotheses. The study is grounded in recent demand planning and inventory optimisation literature. Findings are expected to show that supermarkets deploying data-driven forecasting tools experience significantly fewer stock-outs. Practical recommendations will be directed at retail operations managers, software vendors, and supply chain consultants serving the Nigerian modern trade sector, with broader implications for retail supply chain development across Nigeria's urban centres. Keywords: demand forecasting, stock-out, supermarkets, Abuja, inventory management.