Demand-Side Management Potential and Consumer Response Analysis for Residential Electricity Customers of EKEDC Lagos

This study empirically analyses the demand-side management potential and consumer response characteristics of residential electricity customers of the Eko Electricity Distribution Company in Lagos State, South West Nigeria. Demand-side management programmes that shift or reduce electricity demand during peak periods can defer costly generation and transmission capacity investments and improve system reliability, yet consumer behaviour response to DSM incentives in the Nigerian residential sector is poorly understood. A stratified random sample of 500 EKEDC residential customers in Surulere, Mushin, and Lekki districts was recruited for a six-month study combining smart meter load profile analysis with structured telephone surveys and a stated preference experiment. Load profile analysis established current load shapes, peak contribution hours, and flexible load composition for each customer segment. The stated preference experiment presented customers with hypothetical time-of-use tariff structures at varying price differentials and assessed their willingness to shift specific appliances from peak to off-peak hours. Survey data were analysed using ordered logistic regression to identify socioeconomic and attitudinal determinants of DSM participation willingness. Results show that air conditioning, electric water heaters, and washing machines represent the largest flexible load categories in the Lekki higher-income segment, while refrigerators and lighting dominate in the Mushin lower-income segment. Willingness to participate in time-of-use pricing is highest among customers with higher electricity bills, suggesting that larger consumers have greater financial motivation for load shifting. Estimated peak demand reduction potential of 14 percent is achievable with a 30 percent customer participation rate. Keywords: demand-side management, residential consumers, load profile, EKEDC, time-of-use tariff.