Developing an Emigration Impact Assessment Framework for Nigerian States

International emigration from Nigeria has accelerated in recent years with significant consequences for skilled labour markets, demographic composition, and remittance flows, and developing a professional impact assessment framework for state governments enables evidence-based policy responses. This study developed an Emigration Impact Assessment Framework for Nigerian state governments, with reference contexts from Edo (SS), Lagos (SW), and Anambra (SE) States, which have the highest emigration volumes nationally. A professional framework development methodology was applied, incorporating structured consultations with 20 state planning and labour officials, 10 migration economists, and 8 diaspora network representatives, alongside review of IOM migration impact assessment guidelines and the World Bank's migration data governance recommendations. The assessment framework specifies five impact dimensions: labour market effects (skill depletion, wage effects), demographic effects (age-sex structure, household headship), remittance and investment flows, social and cultural effects, and brain circulation potential. Data collection methods including emigrant surveys, employer skill gap assessments, and administrative data analysis are specified for each dimension. Expert review by nine emigration research and policy specialists confirmed the framework's comprehensiveness. The study recommends Edo, Lagos, and Anambra States commission the first full assessment in Year 1, use findings to inform diaspora engagement policies, and share data with NPopC's migration statistics programme.

Keywords: emigration impact, brain drain, diaspora, migration assessment framework, Nigeria