Development of an Ecological Niche Model for Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Glossina Species in Nigeria Under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change is projected to alter the geographic distribution of tsetse flies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with significant implications for the spatial boundaries of trypanosomiasis risk zones in Nigeria. Existing tsetse distribution maps for Nigeria are outdated and were not derived from species distribution modeling approaches that can project future range shifts. This study develops ecologically rigorous species distribution models for all confirmed Glossina species in Nigeria and projects their distribution under multiple climate change scenarios. A comprehensive occurrence dataset will be compiled from historical trap records, museum collections, and new field surveys conducted across 80 sites in 20 states. MaxEnt and ensemble modeling approaches using bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and CMIP6 climate projections will generate current and future distribution maps under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2080. Model performance will be assessed using AUC, TSS, and partial ROC statistics. Model transferability will be validated against independent occurrence records. The study makes an original contribution by producing the first climate-informed tsetse distribution forecast for Nigeria, providing a predictive tool for the National Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Control Programme to anticipate emerging risk zones in currently unaffected states. Keywords: species distribution modeling, tsetse flies, climate change, Glossina, Nigeria