Economic Nationalism and Chinese Investment: An Analysis of Nigerian Policy Responses from 2015 to 2023

Nigeria's policy responses to Chinese investment have oscillated between welcoming facilitation and protective economic nationalism, reflecting complex negotiations between development goals and domestic economic interest protection. This study analyses the evolution of economic nationalism in Nigeria's Chinese investment policy from 2015 to 2023, examining the policy instruments deployed, the interest coalitions behind them, and their effectiveness in modifying Chinese investor behaviour. A policy analysis design was adopted, combining systematic documentary review of 45 policy instruments, executive orders, and regulatory changes affecting Chinese investment with structured interviews with 20 Nigerian policy makers, ten Chinese business association representatives, and eight policy analysts. Results identify three waves of policy response: the accommodationist phase from 2015 to 2017, the local content assertiveness phase from 2018 to 2020, and the regulatory tightening phase from 2021 to 2023. Local content requirements have achieved partial compliance but enforcement is inconsistent. Trade protection measures have generated WTO compliance questions. Deportation of undocumented Chinese nationals has occurred episodically rather than systematically. The study makes an original contribution to the political economy of Chinese investment governance in Africa by providing longitudinal analysis of Nigerian policy responses, and recommends a comprehensive Sino-Nigerian Investment Framework Agreement that would replace ad hoc policy responses with transparent, negotiated mutual commitments.

Keywords: economic nationalism, Chinese investment, Nigeria policy, local content, political economy