Soft Power Effectiveness of Chinese Cultural Diplomacy in Nigeria: An Evidence Synthesis

China's cultural diplomacy in Nigeria, conducted through Confucius Institutes, media platforms, scholarship programmes, and cultural events, is intended to build public goodwill and improve Nigeria's willingness to support Chinese policy positions. The effectiveness of these investments in achieving soft power objectives has been evaluated only partially in published literature. This study conducts a systematic evidence synthesis of studies assessing Chinese cultural diplomacy effectiveness in Nigeria published between 2015 and 2024. A systematic review and meta-analysis design was adopted, with 38 eligible empirical studies identified through comprehensive database searching. Studies were assessed for quality using a modified Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Quantitative effect sizes were extracted where available. Narrative synthesis was used for qualitative evidence. Results indicate consistent evidence that direct exposure to Chinese cultural programmes produces positive attitude shifts toward Chinese culture and society. Evidence on whether these attitude shifts translate into supportive foreign policy preferences is mixed and generally weak. Confucius Institute participation shows the strongest and most consistently documented effect on Mandarin learning motivation. Scholarship programme participation shows sustained positive perceptions of China but does not reliably produce pro-China political orientations. The study contributes an original evidence synthesis to the Chinese soft power effectiveness literature, filling a gap in the systematic review literature specifically focused on the Nigerian context, and recommends government-to-government cultural exchange programme expansion alongside Confucius Institute activities.

Keywords: Chinese soft power, cultural diplomacy, Nigeria, evidence synthesis, systematic review