Empirical Analysis of Demographic Determinants of Child Educational Outcomes in Nasarawa State

Educational attainment disparities in Nasarawa State reflect underlying demographic drivers including household composition, birth order, sibling density, and parental characteristics that have not been empirically disentangled in this North Central context. This study empirically examined the demographic determinants of child educational outcomes among primary school-aged children in Lafia, Keffi, and Akwanga Local Government Areas, Nasarawa State. A household survey of 600 children aged 6 to 14 (one randomly selected per household) collected data on grade completion, school attendance, household demographic characteristics, birth order, sibship size, and parental education and occupation. Ordered logistic regression and OLS regression (for continuous outcomes) were applied. Results showed that birth order was inversely associated with grade completion after controlling for age and household wealth (beta = -0.14, p < 0.001 per birth order increment). Sibship size above five children was associated with significantly reduced schooling investment per child. Parental education had the strongest positive association with child educational outcomes (beta = 0.38 per year of mother's education, p < 0.001). Single-parent households showed significantly worse educational outcomes for children. Household size above eight persons was negatively associated with grade-for-age status. The study provides original empirical evidence on demographic drivers of educational deprivation in Nasarawa State and recommends family planning integration with school readiness programmes, parental education incentive schemes, and household survey expansion to all LGAs. Keywords: educational outcomes, demographic determinants, Nasarawa State, birth order, child schooling