Empirical Investigation of Rural-Urban Welfare Differentials in North Central Nigeria

The rural-urban welfare gap in North Central Nigeria has demographic implications for migration decisions, urbanisation patterns, and social cohesion, and empirically quantifying this gap with multidimensional welfare measures provides a more complete picture than income poverty measures alone. This study empirically investigated rural-urban welfare differentials in six states of the North Central zone: Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau, using pooled data from the NBS 2019 and 2022 General Household Surveys. Welfare was measured across five dimensions: consumption expenditure, educational attainment, health service access, housing quality, and asset ownership. Welfare inequality between rural and urban areas was quantified using the Gini coefficient and Theil Index, with between- and within-group decomposition. Urban areas showed significantly higher welfare scores across all five dimensions. The consumption expenditure Gini coefficient was 0.41 for rural areas versus 0.47 for urban areas, indicating that within-urban inequality exceeds within-rural inequality. Theil Index decomposition showed that between-zone (rural-urban) inequality accounted for 43.7 percent of total welfare inequality, while within-zone inequality accounted for 56.3 percent. Nasarawa and Niger States showed the largest rural-urban welfare differentials. Trend analysis confirmed that the rural-urban gap in educational attainment had narrowed between 2019 and 2022, unlike other welfare dimensions. The study provides empirical evidence for place-based development investment and recommends geographically targeted investment in rural North Central LGAs.

Keywords: rural-urban welfare differential, North Central Nigeria, inequality, Theil Index, multidimensional welfare