Empirical Analysis of Operational Reliability Factors in Nigerian Gas Power Plants: A Quantitative Study

The chronic unreliability of gas-fired power plants is a central constraint on Nigeria's electricity supply, yet the relative contribution of gas supply, equipment, and operational management factors to plant unavailability has not been systematically quantified in the academic literature. This study empirically analyses the operational reliability determinants of gas-fired power plants in Nigeria, drawing on plant availability and outage records from 12 plants in the Lagos, Edo, Ogun, and Rivers states segments of the national grid. The research constructs a plant reliability performance database covering a five-year period, categorising outage events by cause (gas supply interruption, gas quality non-conformance, equipment failure, planned maintenance, and grid constraint curtailment) and quantifying their contribution to total energy not generated. A random-effects panel regression model is estimated to identify plant-level and contextual factors associated with higher equivalent forced outage rates (EFOR). The study addresses a gap in reliability engineering literature specific to Nigerian power plant conditions, where the multi-causal nature of outages blurs the boundary between gas sector and power sector accountability. Findings reveal that gas supply interruptions account for 41 percent of total energy not generated across the sample, equipment failures account for 33 percent, and planned maintenance accounts for 18 percent. Plant age, gas supply contract type (spot versus long-term), and operator training investment level are the strongest regression predictors of EFOR. Recommendations include mandatory outage cause reporting under the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) framework, long-term gas supply contract incentives, and minimum operator qualification standards for gas plant engineers. Keywords: power plant reliability, gas supply, outage analysis, Nigeria, EFOR.