Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Road Quality and Traffic Accident Severity in South South Nigeria

The relationship between road infrastructure quality and traffic accident severity is theoretically well-established but empirically under-investigated in Nigeria's South South geopolitical zone, where road conditions and accident rates are among the most challenging in the country. This study empirically analyses the relationship between road quality indices and accident severity outcomes across major highways in Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, Edo, and Akwa Ibom states. Using accident data obtained from the Federal Road Safety Corps South South zone commands for the period 2019 to 2024 (n = 4,200 incidents), the study constructs road quality indices from pavement condition surveys and correlates these with accident severity measures using ordered logistic regression. The model controls for traffic volume, vehicle type, time of day, and weather conditions. Findings show that poor pavement condition significantly increases the probability of severe and fatal accident outcomes, with accidents on roads rated below a pavement quality index threshold of 40 being 2.7 times more likely to result in fatalities. The effect is more pronounced for heavy goods vehicles and occurs disproportionately on rural roads. The study addresses an empirical gap in road safety literature by providing zone-specific evidence on the road condition-accident severity nexus. The findings challenge the common policy narrative that driver behaviour alone drives accident rates and support a prioritised infrastructure investment response. Keywords: road quality, accident severity, South South Nigeria, road safety, pavement condition.