Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Trade Openness and Inclusive Economic Growth in Nigeria (2010-2023)

This study provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between trade openness and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria over the period 2010 to 2023, a period encompassing significant shifts in trade policy, commodity price cycles, and structural transformation efforts. While theoretical trade models predict welfare-improving effects from openness, the distributional consequences in a resource-dependent economy like Nigeria remain contested. The study employs an econometric research design using annual time series data sourced from the World Bank, UNCTAD, and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Trade openness is operationalised as the ratio of total trade to GDP, while inclusive growth is measured through composite indices incorporating per capita income growth, poverty headcount ratios, Gini coefficient trends, and unemployment rates. Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing and the Error Correction Model are used to examine short-run and long-run relationships, controlling for capital formation, human development, and institutional quality. The theoretical framework draws on the Heckscher-Ohlin model, the new trade theory, and the inclusive growth literature. Findings are expected to reveal that the trade openness-growth relationship is conditional on structural transformation and that openness has delivered aggregate growth without commensurate reductions in poverty and inequality, due to the export concentration in capital-intensive petroleum. The study fills a research gap by applying an inclusive growth lens to the Nigerian trade openness debate and recommends diversification-oriented trade policies that create broad-based labour market gains. Keywords: trade openness, inclusive growth, Nigeria, econometric analysis, poverty