Endogenous Technological Change in Nigeria’s Solar Energy Sector: Learning Curves and Innovation System Analysis

Understanding how technological learning and innovation systems shape the long-run cost and capability trajectory of Nigeria's solar energy sector is essential for formulating industrial and innovation policies that maximise the domestic value of the renewable energy transition, yet endogenous technological change in the Nigerian solar context has not been analysed using rigorous learning curve methodologies and innovation system frameworks. This study analyses endogenous technological change in Nigeria's solar energy sector by constructing empirical learning curves for solar system installation costs and applying an innovation system analysis framework to characterise the strengths, weaknesses, and leverage points of Nigeria's solar energy innovation ecosystem. Installation cost data spanning 2012 to 2024 were assembled from 18 Nigerian solar companies through confidential commercial data sharing arrangements. Experience curves relating cumulative installed capacity to unit installation cost are estimated using log-linear regression, separating global technology cost trends from domestically generated learning effects. The innovation system analysis applies the Technological Innovation System framework, mapping the functions of knowledge development, knowledge diffusion, market formation, resource mobilisation, legitimation, and entrepreneurial experimentation within Nigeria's solar sector. Findings reveal a domestic learning rate of 12 percent for small commercial solar installations, indicating meaningful endogenous capability accumulation beyond imported cost trends. Critical innovation system weaknesses include weak testing and standards infrastructure, limited university-industry linkage, and absence of public procurement as a demand creation instrument. The study makes original theoretical contributions to endogenous technological change theory in late industrialising renewable energy contexts. Keywords: endogenous technological change, learning curves, solar energy, Nigeria, innovation system.