Entrepreneurial Ecosystems and Startup Performance in Lagos: An Empirical Analysis of Ecosystem Enablers

This study empirically analyses the relationship between entrepreneurial ecosystem components and startup performance outcomes in Lagos, South West Nigeria, addressing the gap in quantitative evidence on which ecosystem elements most significantly predict venture success in sub-Saharan Africa's largest tech hub. Entrepreneurial ecosystem theory has predominantly been tested in high-income country contexts, and the applicability of its prescriptions to the Lagos environment, characterised by infrastructure constraints, informal networks, and rapidly evolving digital infrastructure, requires systematic empirical examination. The study employs a cross-sectional survey design, collecting data from 220 startup founders who have been operating for at least 18 months in Lagos's technology and innovation sector. Validated measures of ecosystem components including finance availability, talent access, market access, knowledge infrastructure, and regulatory environment were administered alongside objective performance indicators including revenue level, employment size, and product market launch status. Structural equation modelling was used to test the hypothesised ecosystem-to-performance relationships. Findings indicate that informal mentorship network quality and access to anchor customers are the strongest ecosystem predictors of startup performance, with standardised path coefficients of 0.41 and 0.38 respectively. Formal venture capital access, while positive, shows a weaker direct relationship with performance than predicted by Western ecosystem literature, explained by its limited reach beyond a small elite tier of startups. Regulatory environment quality shows a significant negative indirect effect on performance through its dampening of operational efficiency. Keywords: entrepreneurial ecosystem, startup performance, Lagos, ecosystem enablers, structural equation modelling.