Estimation of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Nigerian Crop Agriculture: Evidence from Panel Data

Total factor productivity growth is a critical indicator of long-run agricultural sector performance, capturing improvements in output efficiency attributable to technological progress, resource allocation improvements, and institutional development rather than simple input expansion. In the context of Nigeria's commitment to agricultural transformation under the Agriculture Promotion Policy, rigorous empirical estimation of productivity growth across crop farming subsectors provides an evidence base for investment prioritisation. This study estimates total factor productivity growth in Nigerian crop agriculture using a balanced state-level panel dataset covering the period 2015 to 2024 from National Bureau of Statistics agricultural accounts and Federal Ministry of Agriculture annual reports. Total factor productivity was estimated using the Malmquist productivity index decomposed into efficiency change and technological change components through data envelopment analysis. Results indicate that total factor productivity in Nigerian crop agriculture grew at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the study period, with technological change contributing 1.1 percentage points and efficiency change contributing 0.6 percentage points. Productivity growth was highest in maize and rice sub-sectors, driven by adoption of improved varieties, and lowest in roots and tubers, where mechanisation has lagged. States in the North Central zone recorded the highest average productivity growth, partly reflecting irrigation expansion investments. The study recommends sustained public investment in agricultural research and extension to maintain technological change contributions to total factor productivity growth and targeted mechanisation support for low-productivity subsectors. Keywords: total factor productivity, Malmquist index, Nigerian crop agriculture, panel data, agricultural transformation