European Union Climate Diplomacy and Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution: An Analytical Study

This study analytically examines the influence of European Union climate diplomacy on the design and revision of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, investigating whether EU bilateral climate engagement has shaped the ambition, content, or implementation strategy of Nigeria's climate commitments. The EU has positioned itself as a global climate leadership actor, and its bilateral climate diplomacy with major African emitters like Nigeria has intensified in the context of COP26 and COP28 negotiations. This research employs a process tracing methodology, examining the timeline of EU-Nigeria climate diplomatic interactions alongside the development of Nigeria's 2021 revised NDC. Primary data sources include EU-Nigeria climate dialogue meeting records, Nigerian Ministry of Environment NDC technical documentation, and interviews with Nigerian climate negotiators and EU climate diplomacy officials. Secondary analysis of UNFCCC submissions and academic literature on EU-Africa climate diplomacy published between 2021 and 2024 provides theoretical context. The study examines whether EU climate finance pledges and technical assistance have influenced specific NDC ambition levels, sectoral targets, or adaptation investment commitments in Nigeria's NDC revision process. Findings contribute empirically to the growing scholarly literature on the EU's role in shaping African countries' climate governance architectures. Keywords: EU climate diplomacy, Nigeria NDC, Paris Agreement, climate finance, climate governance.